The Sunlit Uplands

Follow Sunlit Uplands by E-Mail

Monday, December 19, 2011

Gingrich Collapses in Iowa as Ron Paul Surges to the Front


This portends what we expect will be a repudiation of the Republican establishment.  They tried to have their way by foisting Mitt Romney and then Rick Perry on grassroots Republicans.  When the establishment saw those two were too phony and dim witted to be taken seriously, they rallied around Newt Gingrich.  But he's a RINO'S RINO and all the endorsements and speeches at the George H. W. Bush Presidential Library not only won't work this time around, they are political poison.  

The process will have worked and the TEA Party will have succeeded if, as we expect, the unexpected happens in Iowa.  We are hoping for a strong finish by Rick Santorum in Iowa and an even greater showing in South Carolina.  Whatever the outcome, we are looking forward to a Republican Party restored to the conservative grassroots.

The very wise Sir Winston Churchill said it best: "You can always count on Americans to do the right thing—after they’ve tried everything else."

By Dashiell Bennett
A new poll from Public Policy Polling shows that Ron Paul has taken the lead in the Iowa caucus race, while Newt Gingrich's support is fading fast. A different Gallup poll shows Gringrich still holding the lead, but slipping, while The New York Times has Paul in the lead as well.

Gingrich has seen his numbers in the PPP poll drop from 27 percent to 14 percent in just three weeks, while his favorability rating is now split at 46 percent for to 47 percent against, the worst of any candidate not named Jon Huntsman. That's quite a fall for someone who looked to be running away with the state and taking charge on the national level. 

Mitt Romney has also seen his numbers tick up slightly (to 20%), putting him just behind Paul (23%) for second place. The poll measured voters who are planning to vote in the Republican caucus.

Perhaps the most telling secondary question was, "Do you think Newt Gingrich has strong principles?" Only 36 percent say that he does, but for Paul that number was 73 percent. 

The bad news for Paul, however, is that when asked for their second choice for President, only 9% said they would vote for him after their preferred candidate. That means if supporters of any of the second-tier candidates sense defeat and decided to abandon their choice at the last minute, those votes are more likely to go to Romney. Even if Romney doesn't win, the stronger than expected showing could be the snowball that starts a primary avalanche for him.

One other tidbit from the PPP poll, the first question about Barack Obama asked if the respondents think he was born in the United States. Fifty-two percent either said he was not or they're not sure.


Post a Comment