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THEY were the hope of the republican side - confident young Australians with weak emotional ties to Britain increasingly taking over from ageing monarchists and putting the next referendum on the issue beyond doubt. It hasn't quite worked out that way.

Research commissioned by the Australian Republican Movement shows that 45 per cent of Australians under 30 want a republic - fewer than any other age group apart from those 70 or over. Strongest support, at 54 per cent, is among baby boomers, particularly men.

Moreover, young people are much more positive towards the Queen. As one young participant in a focus group put it, she is ''like a mother figure''. If Australia became a republic, ''we'd feel as though we'd lost a family'', said another.
Queen Elizabeth II is a 'mother figure' to some young Australians.
Queen Elizabeth II is a 'mother figure' to some young Australians.  
Photo: Getty Images


Young people also are more attracted to the royals as celebrities, particularly the Queen and William and Kate. It is a far cry from the lead-up to the 1999 referendum on the republic, when the royal family was seen by many as dysfunctional and discredited.

There is another surprising ingredient in young people's attitudes: they look to Britain for protection, fearful about Australia's vulnerability in an age of terrorism and in a region with a rapidly rising China.

The national director of the Australian Republican Movement, David Morris, said older people found it difficult to understand this sense of insecurity among the younger generations. He thinks it may be that the Bali bombings and other acts of terrorism were particularly traumatic for the post-September 11 generation, whereas older people who have lived through wars, economic hardship and the rise of Japan had a broader perspective.

The good news for the republicans is that a little more information could make a big difference.

''Anyone who has spent any time thinking about this issue knows our security is actually in our alliance with the US,'' Mr Morris said. ''We haven't relied on Britain since the fall of Singapore [in 1942].''

Mr Morris also points out that a quarter of those under 30 are undecided about a republic - the highest proportion of any of the age groups.

Nevertheless, he concedes that the research is sobering. Or, in the words of UMR Research, which did the polling, ''the Australian Republican Movement's task is massive''.

The research shows that while 48 per cent of voters overall favour a republic, only 18 per cent are strong supporters. The same proportion rate the issue as very important, but they are more likely to be monarchists than republicans. As UMR put it, ''As passion grows, republican support declines.''

Undaunted, the republicans today move from a passive approach to a campaign footing. The focus will be on Australia's identity and values, with a new website asking ''Who do we want to be?'' It invites people to sign up and join the conversation about ''what are the values, identity and characteristics that make us unique?''

A ''soft'' campaign launch in Hobart today starts a month of activities throughout Tasmania in a trial run for a campaign in every state next year.

''We want to wipe the slate clean and start a whole grassroots conversation,'' said Mr Morris, a former diplomat.

''We know from the research that the actual mechanics of the [appointment and powers of the] head of state doesn't excite people. But we know they are really passionate about their identity. There is no lingering sentimentality about being part of the Empire. We are now a mature nation with our own identity. It is just a matter of working out what is the best time to resolve this.''