Springtime in the Smoky Mountains

Friday, April 4, 2008

GALLUP POLL -- Huckabee Tops List of Republican Voters' V.P. Favorites

"Nomination also-rans Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney receive the most mentions when Republicans are asked whom they would most like to see as McCain's vice presidential running mate, at 18% and 15%, respectively. ...Conservative and moderate or liberal Republicans do not differ much in their choices -- Huckabee, Romney, and Rice are the top three candidate s among both groups. ...There are differences by religiosity, however. Republicans who attend church weekly rate Huckabee, a former Baptist minister, as the top choice, with 29% choosing him compared to 19% who choose Romney."

By Jeffrey M. Jones

PRINCETON, NJ -- At this early point in the process, Republicans do not have a clear favorite as to whom they would most want to see as John McCain's vice presidential running mate.

Nomination also-rans Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney receive the most mentions when Republicans are asked whom they would most like to see as McCain's vice presidential running mate, at 18% and 15%, respectively. It is common for candidates who come up short for the presidential nomination to be strongly considered for the vice presidential spot on the ticket, and John Edwards in 2004, George H.W. Bush in 1980, and Lyndon Johnson in 1960 are some of the former presidential candidates who accepted the vice presidential spot after losing out for the presidential nomination.

The unsuccessful candidates' names may also be the most top-of-mind when respondents answer the question, given their visibility while campaigning for the nomination.

In fact, five of the top six names on the list of suggested vice presidential candidates for McCain actively campaigned against him for the 2008 GOP presidential nomination -- Fred Thompson, Ron Paul, and Rudy Giuliani join Huckabee and Romney among the most frequently mentioned names. The only non-candidate among these is Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice.

A few Democrats were mentioned by at least 1% of respondents, including McCain ally Joe Lieberman (who was elected to the U.S. Senate in 2006 as an independent but who was a Democrat prior to that), John Edwards, and Bill Richardson. Though McCain has consistently worked with Democrats during his time in the Senate, there is some pressure on him to choose a conservative Republican to shore up his support among the right wing of the party.

Also, about one in three Republicans, 31%, could not think of any specific person they would like McCain to pick.

Conservative and moderate or liberal Republicans do not differ much in their choices -- Huckabee, Romney, and Rice are the top three candidates among both groups (Florida Gov. Charlie Crist ties Rice for third among moderates/liberals). The main difference is that moderate or liberal Republicans are less likely to supply a name of a favored vice presidential pick.

There are differences by religiosity, however. Republicans who attend church weekly rate Huckabee, a former Baptist minister, as the top choice, with 29% choosing him compared to 19% who choose Romney. Among Republicans who attend religious services less often, Romney gets slightly more mentions in the poll than Rice, with Huckabee getting the third most.

Survey Methods

Results for this Gallup Panel study are based on telephone interviews with 453 Republicans and Republican leaners, aged 18 and older, conducted March 24-27, 2008. Gallup Panel members are recruited through random selection methods. The panel is weighted so that it is demographically representative of the U.S. adult population. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±6 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.



Anonymous said...

It is too bad that Mike said he was not running for VP. He might take the spot if McCain offered, except that would make him, well, less than honest, wouldn't it? I mean, even though it was a statistical impossibility for him to win and he continued claiming he was in it to win and not for the VP spot.

Good thing he is a man of integrity.

Anonymous said...

Mike Huckabee is honest, and he would make a wonderful VP. No, he wasn't running for VP. The media wanted you to believe that. They drilled it in peoples heads. Huckabee is a man of his word, and he was running for the President of the US. If it hadn't been for the media, GOP pundits and leaders telling people misleading information such as a vote for Huckabee is really a vote for McCain...and accusing Huckabee and McCain of a conspiracy of the VP ticket, Huckabee would have had a chance at a brokered convention. Huckabee never said that he didn't want to be VP if he didn't make the Presidency. He just made it clear he was running for President, not VP. Now that he has stepped aside graciously, I'm sure, if asked, Huckabee would be both grateful and happy to take the position. That in no way makes him dishonest. He did what he said he would do...he finished the race. I hope and pray that McCain picks Huckabee as VP. If he does, he will surely win the General election because people that didn't want to vote for McCain will definitely vote for him with Huckabee on the ticket.

Anonymous said...

Yes, the majority agree that Mike Huckabee is the best choice for VP; he is an authentic social conservative and can relate with the average American. He is likeable and has the best ideas about how we can improve the economy. I hope McCain chooses Huckabee.

Anonymous said...

18% does not make a majority. Sen. McCain says that he's not great on economics so he should pick Huckabee? This is the man who raised taxes $505 million, increased the tax burden for the average Arkansan 47% and raised government spending by 50%.

Oh yeah and on illegal immigration Arkansas has the highest percentage of illegal immigrants in the country and that number is growing at the highest rate of any other state. He also opposed showing proof of citizenship as a requirement to vote. Or has he changed his mind on all these (flip-flopped)?

Gov. Huckabee will doom the Republican ticket. He will put the intermountain west Red states in play for the democrats (Utah, Idaho, Wyoming, Arizona, Montana) and will almost assuredly push Nevada and Colorado (purple states) to the democrats ledger.

TheMatman said...

Dear anonymous:

Couldn't the same criticism be leveled at Romney? He spent, what, $100 million to become President (not VP, mind you) dropping napalm on John McCain... but now he has the chutzpah to actually seek the VP Nomination, while acting like he and John McCain are buddies.

At least Huckabee rarely (if ever) said an ill word about McCain. In fact, he was so nice to McCain that McCain used his own words of praise in his SC ads.

Anonymous said...

And Romney will doom the Republicans as well. Romney lost every southern state... and he never won a primary except in states where he once lived or worked.

Besides, Southern evangelicals are not going to vote for the grandson of a polygamist... And blacks in the deep south are not going to vote for a guy who used to believe that blacks had the mark of Cain.

Anonymous said...

I did not suggest that Romney should be the VP choice. I merely stated that Huckabee should not.

For whatever their reasons most Evagelicals will not support Romney and consequently he would be a poor choice.

I could be wrong but I don't think that Romney lived in Wyoming, Nevada, Minnesota, Alaska, Maine, etc. You are correct that he did not win a southern state but he was competetive in all (except Arkansas).

He did campaign agressively against Sen. McCain while Gov. Huckabee (VP wannabe?) all but campaigned for Sen. McCain.

I didn't know that what our grandparents did was important but I guess it is to some.

Anonymous said...

Wyoming, Nevada, Alaska and Maine were not primaries.... they were caucuses.

Anonymous said...

I have no idea who Mr. McCain will, but I hope he choses a Social Conservative like Mr. Huckabee or at least somebody who understands the values of America's Heartland.


Anonymous said...

Governor Huckabee carried the states Senator McCain will need to win in November.

Governor Huckabee is the future of the Republican party if it wants to be the majority party. He has it right on the social issues and he has it right on the economic issues. He understands that there are a lot more people living on Main street than Wall street. Governor Huckabee also truly understands the nature of the war on terrorism.

Governor Huckabee has the gift of communication. An absolute necessity in this media age. One can not lead if one can not communicate the vision.

If Senator McCain is a wise man, he will choose Governor Huckabee.

Anonymous said...

I will only vote for Huckabee. If Huckabee is on the ticket I vote, if he is not i don't vote.


We Like Mike!!!!!

Anonymous said...

When Mike said he wasn't running for vp, he was still in the race. I don't think he's ever said that he would flat out refuse such an offer.
I believe 100% that McCain would have no problem winning in Nov. with Huckabee on the ticket. He'd get those necessary states. Many Obamans have said they would have supported Mike, as well as conservative Dems.

Anonymous said...

Huckabee gets more bang for his buck than any politician out there. He's proven that by what he accomplished in his own state and by the amount he spent running for president. Romney spent 20 times as much for his delegates. Huckabee is very, very strong in economics. And no tax dollars forced to be spent on elective abortions.

Anonymous said...

I even like Huck and I'm not a conservative.

Wonder if you in the GOP will pick Conde? Just wondering here.

Anonymous said...

Mike Huckabee would be a great choice for VP. I am from Arkansas and Mike Huckabee is greatly loved and respected here. He did a great job as Governor and would be a great VP. I did not agree with him on every issue but you will never agree 100% with a candidate. I would vote for him again and that is the best recommendation I can give.